This simple framework has the ability to significantly reduce domestic and international controversy by getting away from the policy of mowing. In the section on terrorist motivation, we develop a. This paper contributes to the literature of deterrence against nuclear smuggling by studying the required conditions for both credible and noncredible retaliation threats, and quantifying. Jun 11, 2019 the second one is to theorize certain approaches for deterring vnsas which shall remain a key component in, but not the cornerstone of, national security strategies. Nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons and missiles. Deterrence in counter terrorism einternational relations. Modeling credible retaliation threats in deterring the. Bush, statement by the president in his address to. Coercion, denial, and delegitimization in counterterrorism alex s. Oct 18, 2016 in his new book, deterring nuclear terrorism, robert litwak argues that effective strategies on the state level to prevent nuclear terrorism will not eliminate nonstate threats, but will go far. The impossible challenge of deterring nuclear terrorism by al.
Deterring al qaeda from using a nuclear weapon, should it acquire one, is a harder. The viability of deterring terrorism einternational relations. Building on scientific techniques developed during the cold war, the united states stands a good chance of developing the tools needed to attribute terrorist nuclear attacks to their state sponsors. Deterring state sponsorship of nuclear terrorism council. Mar 01, 2004 building on scientific techniques developed during the cold war, the united states stands a good chance of developing the tools needed to attribute terrorist nuclear attacks to their state sponsors. While deterrence of terrorism may at first glance seem to be an unrealistic goal concepts such as cooptation and inducement cannot be expected to be effective for dealing with terrorists who have the unshakable commitment of an osama bin laden it may be. Alqaida, international law, nonstate actors, nuclear weapons and nonproliferation, strategy, terrorism counterterrorism, weapons of mass destruction abstract while nuclear deterrence theory may be wellsuited to dealing with nuclear armed states, its suitability for deterring nuclear terrorism has frequently been questioned since 911. Based on publicly available data, we quantify a gametheoretic model of terrorist decision making to understand the role of nuclear detection technologies in deterring nuclear terrorism. While this analysis suggests that certain types of terrorists can be deterred from. In the final months of the 2004 presidential campaign, the question of what the united states should be doing to address the threat of nuclear terrorism became a compelling. Today, much of the concern over possible nuclear attack. Maintenance costs for todays nuclear deterrent are approximately three percent of the annual defense budget. Deterring nuclear terrorism, levi, page 2 confronting the threat of missile attack, the united states ultimately relies on deterrence, threatening any wouldbe attacker with unacceptable punishment. Deterring state sponsorship of nuclear terrorism book.
And since only states are known to possess nuclear weapons, an important question is how to deter them from letting terrorists acquire a device, whether through. Deterring and dissuading nuclear terrorism henleyputnam. Vinson is an adjunct research staff member at the institute for defense analyses o n july 8, 2014, the israel. The iranian government does not use terrorism for ideological reasons. The impossible challenge of deterring nuclear terrorism. Request pdf the impossible challenge of deterring nuclear terrorism by al qaeda deterring al qaeda from using a nuclear weapon, should it acquire one, is a harder challenge than analysts. Assessing the threat, developing a response april 22, 2009 evan b. Most analysts also ignore the dynamic of crisis instability use it or. Doing so requires broadening the traditional concept of. It is a persistent global threat that knows no border, nationality or religion and is a challenge that the international community must tackle together. Wilner center for security studies, eth zurich, switzerland abstract this article argues that deterrence theory can be applied to counterterrorism. Assessing, detecting, and deterring the threat of maritime nuclear and radiological smuggling in the western indian ocean region. Jun 15, 2016 deterring nuclear terrorism shaping terrorist adversaries perceptions of u.
Deterring nuclear terrorism shaping terrorist adversaries perceptions of u. National security policy after 911 volume 5 issue 4 vesna danilovic. Deterring state sponsorship of nuclear terrorism book, 2008. Nato will continue to fight this threat in all its forms and manifestations with determination. States must deter problematic socioeconomic systems in order to prevent the individual from seeking out extreme measures for selfworth, which will, by extension, ultimately deter the terrorist organization. Pakistan continues to build up its nuclear arsenal including the development of battlefield tactical nuclear weapons, employs terrorism as an instrument of state policy, and faces the internal executive summary left. Deterring the smuggling of nuclear weapons in container. Other strategies include persuasion or winning hearts and minds, economic aid and democratization, appeasement, and military force.
While deterrence of terrorism may at first glance seem to be an unrealistic goal concepts such as cooptation and inducement cannot be expected to be effective for dealing with terrorists who have the unshakable commitment of an osama bin laden it may be possible to influence some members of terrorist groups. Individual case studies and comprehensive statistical analyses suggest us military assistance correlates with deter. Nuclear powers were deterred from attacking each other by the fear of retaliation. This report, which analyzes nbc weapons programs potential threat patterns around the globe, is updated as needed. Status and trends summary the united states has long recognized the dangers inherent in the spread of nuclear, biological, and che mical nbc weapons, and miss iles. Nuclear terrorism refers to any person or persons who detonate a nuclear weapon in an act of. One of the worst fears in the post 911 world is that the threat of nuclear terrorism will become reality. Insider threats to nuclear facilities october 6, 2017. Even a recent study that identified strategies for deterring terrorism, such as. Information about the openaccess article deterring and dissuading nuclear terrorism in doaj. Nonproliferation expert, robert litwak has for decades been immersed in the work of securing nuclear weapons and materials from spreading and falling into the hands of actors that would not hesitate to put them to destructive use. May 19, 2010 is a strategy andor policy of deterrence possible in counter terrorism. Is a strategy andor policy of deterrence possible in counterterrorism. Employing the logic and theory of deterrence, the article suggests ways in which the united states and its allies might counter, contain, and coerce nuclear irans sponsorship of terrorism and nonstate militant groups.
Nevertheless, nuclear terrorism is not like other forms of terrorism because states have to be involved at some stage in the decision chain leading to this type of attack. Nuclear terrorism refers to any person or persons who detonate a nuclear weapon in an act of terrorism meaning illegal or immoral use of violence for a political or religious cause. Gallini held leadership positions in the department of state including director of the office of multilateral nuclear affairs and director of the office of science and technology for international organizations. As a result of the nuclear security summits and other multilateral forums such as the global initiative to counter nuclear terrorism, countries have strengthened their nuclear regulatory mechanisms to reduce the. In his new book, deterring nuclear terrorism, robert litwak argues that effective strategies on the state level to prevent nuclear terrorism will. Deterring and dissuading nuclear terrorism 17 with pakistani nuclear scientist abdul qadeer khan having transferred nuclear technology to iran, north korea, and libya, some terrorist organizations may be able to more easily acquire the technology and material to fabricate an improvised nuclear device. Alqaida, international law, nonstate actors, nuclear weapons and nonproliferation, strategy, terrorism counterterrorism, weapons of mass destruction abstract while nuclear deterrence theory may be wellsuited to dealing with nucleararmed states, its suitability for deterring nuclear terrorism has frequently been questioned since 911. Nuclear terrorism could take several forms, from an attack on nuclear power. Deterring a nuclear 911 l 25 zations that they would work actively to get rid of elements that might bring destruction down upon them.
Instead, irans support for terrorism is motivated by cost and benefit calculations, with the aims of maintaining deterrence and preserving or expanding its influence in the middle east. For states that possess nuclear weapons and states not in compliance with their nuclear nonproliferation obligations, there remains a narrow range of contingencies in which u. Deterring al qaeda from using a nuclear weapon, should it acquire one, is a harder challenge than analysts have argued. This paper addresses the issue of the threat posed by terrorists to civilian nuclear facilities, with particular attention to insider threats to the nuclear fuel cycle. One notable exception is schelling 1984, chapter 14, which studies nuclear terrorism and deterrence. Many countries continue to make efforts to strengthen nuclear security by enhancing systems of nuclear material protection, control. Our focus on deterrence does not imply that other strategies do not have important roles to. The essentials, threats, effects and resilience phineas dickstein and sarah vanunu march, 2016 this research paper was prepared within the framework of the 20162017 ragonis foundation scholarship the international institute for counterterrorism ict and the lauder school of government, diplomacy and strategy at the. In determining the value of deterrence in suppressing an act of nuclear terrorism i will. International convention for the suppression of acts of nuclear terrorism article 1 pdf.
Deterring state sponsorship of nuclear terrorism the council on foreign relations cfr is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and. Some definitions of nuclear terrorism include the sabotage of a nuclear facility andor the detonation of a radiological device, colloquially termed a dirty bomb, but consensus is lacking. Preventing nuclear terrorism the belfer center for science and. Levi contrary to popular belief, with a little technological innovation, deterrence can become a useful strategy against terrorist use of nuclear weapons. There are several reasons for pessimism about the prospects for success in adopting an indirect approach to deterring terrorist threats in fragile and civil warprone states. Request pdf the impossible challenge of deterring nuclear terrorism by al qaeda deterring al qaeda from using a nuclear weapon, should it acquire one. The arguments presented here are based on a future scenario in which iran has succeeded in developing nuclear weapons. The case of dprk 2007 ppnt winter seminar 12 february 2007 washington, dc a program of the uc institute on global conflict and cooperation. Nuclear terrorism, contemporary deterrence strategy, and the role of the united nations submitted to. The diversity of these aims practically ensures that many terrorists will derive utility from their actions regardless of how governments respond. Preventing nuclear terrorism arms control association.
Deterring state sponsorship of nuclear terrorism offers thoughtful analysis and practical guidelines for u. The second one is to theorize certain approaches for deterring vnsas which shall remain a key. While terrorist organizations do not necessarily act uniformly or according to the same underlying beliefs, many of the most aggressive organizations are motivated by. The results suggest that unless the defender imposes high retaliation. Acunsasil summer workshop on international organization studies. President obama at the the 2016 nuclear security summit, held in washington, d. As vice president dick cheney once argued, if there is a one percent chance of a terrorist developing a nuclear weapon, we have to treat it as a certainty in terms of our response. Containing and deterring a nuclear iran american enterprise. Lebovic, deterring international terrorism and rogue states. Deterring and dissuading nuclear terrorism directory of. Building on my previous work on rogue and outlier states. Ferguson and potter from the center for nonproliferation studies have already attempted to. Nuclear terrorism, contemporary deterrence strategy, and the role of the united nations.
Deterring and dissuading nuclear terrorism by john j. Jun 11, 2010 deterring terrorism is too vague a concept. This paper aims to address the limitations of classical deterrence theory in dealing with violent nonstate actors vnsas. While a definitional consensus over the nature of terrorism remains elusive, policymakers and experts alike continue to express the need to effectively counter the threat that terrorism poses to liberal democracies. Maintaining an effective nuclear deterrent is much less expensive than fighting a war that we were unable to deter. Prepared by sandia national laboratories albuquerque, new mexico 87185 and livermore, california 94550. May 22, 20 in utilizing deterrence visavis drone strikes, a distinct red line is established for anyone who decides to plan an attack or aid in an attempted attack on the u. Al qaeda is not a state, has no clear command authority, and has no clear nuclear weaponsemployment doctrine. Nuclear deterrence, preventive war, and counterproliferation.
Irans possession of nuclear weapons will create greater instability in the middle east. Assessing, detecting, and deterring the threat of maritime. Suggestions for deterrence based on punishment have severe limitations. The impossible challenge of deterring nuclear terrorism by. Deterring state sponsorship of nuclear terrorism council on. An israeli approach to deterring terrorism managing persistent conflict through a violent dialogue of military operations by mark vinson mark e. Montgomery over the past several years, the prospect of a terrorist group armed with a nuclear weapon has frequently been cited as a genuine and overriding threat to the security of the united states. Nuclear terrorism is by far the most important problem of our time. It provides a salutary reminder of the potentially catastrophic consequences of irresponsible nuclear armed states making common cause with exceedingly violent nonstate entities. Deterring international terrorism and rogue states. The threat of nuclear terrorism has become a global concern. While active disruption and destruction constitute the. Deterring nuclear terrorism issues in science and technology. Building on scientific techniques developed during the cold war, the united states stands a good chance of developing the tools needed to attribute terrorist nuclear attacks to.
While nuclear deterrence theory may be wellsuited to dealing with nuclear armed states, its suitability for deterring nuclear terrorism has frequently been questioned since 911. He is associate professor of nuclear counterproliferation and deterrence. While terrorist organizations do not necessarily act uniformly or according to the same underlying beliefs, many of the most aggressive organizations are motivated by an ideology that embraces martyrdom and an. While nuclear deterrence theory may be wellsuited to dealing with nucleararmed states, its suitability for deterring nuclear terrorism has frequently been questioned since 911. Robert litwaks deterring nuclear terrorism is a timely and important contribution to the study of both counterterrorism and nonproliferation.
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